Exit polls released on Wednesday projected mixed outcomes for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections. While most predicted victories for BJP-led alliances in both states, a few gave an edge to the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra.
Axis MyIndia was the only pollster forecasting a win for the Congress-JMM alliance in Jharkhand, estimating 49-59 seats in the 81-member assembly, compared to 17-27 seats for the BJP-led NDA and three for others.
The exit polls came out as voting concluded in Maharashtra and the second phase of polling in Jharkhand. They suggested that the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition could retain power in Maharashtra, while the NDA was projected to hold its ground in Jharkhand. The Maharashtra assembly requires 145 seats for a majority, while Jharkhand’s threshold is 41 seats.
Vote counting is scheduled for November 23, covering Maharashtra’s single-phase election and Jharkhand’s two-phase polling on November 13 and 20.
Matrize’s exit poll, conducted in partnership with media outlets, predicted a comfortable 150-170 seats for the BJP and allies in Maharashtra with 48% of the vote share, leaving 110-130 seats for the Congress and its allies (42%) and 8-10 seats for others (10%). In Jharkhand, it forecasted 42-47 seats for the NDA, 25-30 for the INDIA bloc, and up to four for others.
People’s Pulse projected a stronger showing for the BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra with 175-195 seats, leaving 85-112 for the MVA and 7-12 for others. For Jharkhand, it estimated 44-53 seats for the NDA, 25-37 for the INDIA bloc, and 5-9 for others.
Axis MyIndia predicted a higher vote share (45%) for the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand compared to the NDA’s 37% but withheld its Maharashtra results until Thursday. JVC-TimesNow, however, forecasted a BJP-led NDA win in Jharkhand with 42 seats, closely followed by the INDIA bloc’s 38, and just one for others. In Maharashtra, the same poll gave the NDA 159 seats, 116 to MVA, and 13 to others.
Other polls, like P-MARQ, Lokshahi Rudra, and Lokpoll, offered varied projections, with some predicting a narrow victory for the MVA in Maharashtra and others favouring Mahayuti. Meanwhile, Chanakya Strategies and Poll Diary estimated a more significant lead for the BJP-led alliance.
In bypolls for nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh, several exit polls also projected BJP victories in 5-7 constituencies. A survey by Delhi University’s Centre for Global Studies (CGS) supported the forecasts of BJP-led alliances retaining power in both states.
